Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Collapse of the 'Grand Coalition'?

Germany's "grand coalition" seems to be in trouble. The moderate SPD Party chief, Franz Müntefering, has quit his post. The fear is that the leftwing of the party is staging a revolt and that negotiations with the Consevatives will get derailed.

In almost the same moment, the wild Bavarian - Edmund Stoiber - has announced his retirement from national politics. He's not going to join the grand cabinet but will instead return to his position as governor of Bavaria. On the one hand Stoiber's a loose-cannon who constantly endangers interparty peace. On the other hand, he too is a "moderate" when it comes to social and economic issues. His influence in these areas might have helped hold together a strong concensus for steady but cautious reforms.

Already "grand coalition" seems like a dated term (Oh, that's so...October!), one that better described the larger than life personalities trying to make post-election peace than the rather mundane task of forming a government with a pragmatic reform agenda. The alliance of superheroes is no more. Bring on the young unknowns.

My out-of-step optimism continues unabated. Perhaps it's incurable. I think the revolt that's going on is mostly about young politicoes pushing aside battle-hardened geezers with too many chips on their shoulders. I don't think the young SPD is about to push hard left, and if they do they'll fail. The right is ironically, in even greater disarray. Victory does funny things to people. This is Merkel's great opportunity. If she'd get a bullhorn and start providing a little inspiration, there's no reason she can't rally sufficient troops back to the center.

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